***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.5 17.0 20.6 1.1 68.7 62.4 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.3 17.1 20.7 1.2 70.0 62.5 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.0 20.3 0.9 65.4 59.8 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.2 18.1 0.5 61.0 57.4 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.4 17.6 0.6 62.0 57.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.0 15.8 0.5 61.3 57.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.4 20.8 1.3 72.0 64.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.3 16.0 1.0 70.2 64.0 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.6 18.1 0.8 65.8 60.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.6 16.5 0.8 67.0 61.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.2 17.3 0.7 65.0 60.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.6 17.2 1.0 72.2 65.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.6 16.3 0.8 69.9 64.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 18.1 0.8 66.1 59.7 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.7 19.2 0.8 66.7 62.0 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.6 17.0 17.0 0.6 64.2 59.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.3 19.8 0.9 66.1 59.6 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.1 15.9 0.8 68.0 61.6 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.9 20.6 1.1 69.2 62.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.0 13.9 0.7 65.2 59.5 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.4 19.5 0.8 65.4 60.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 19.7 0.8 64.0 58.3 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.5 20.2 1.1 70.2 62.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.9 18.0 0.8 67.0 60.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.8 18.9 0.9 67.6 62.0 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.7 15.6 16.6 0.9 69.4 64.0 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.5 19.7 1.2 71.0 64.2 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.2 18.6 0.6 61.9 58.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.1 15.2 0.8 67.7 61.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.4 20.9 1.2 70.0 62.8 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------