***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.5 19.9 0.7 70.5 64.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.5 19.9 0.7 70.8 63.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.4 19.6 0.5 65.0 59.3 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.6 17.3 0.1 54.4 51.9 12.9 13.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.5 17.0 0.2 56.5 53.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.5 15.1 0.2 57.1 54.2 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 16.6 16.9 20.1 0.9 74.8 66.8 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.4 9.5 15.4 0.7 73.2 65.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.1 17.6 0.5 66.8 60.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.9 15.9 0.5 66.6 59.9 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 16.5 0.2 57.8 54.0 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.9 16.4 0.6 72.3 65.8 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 15.6 0.2 60.0 56.8 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.5 17.4 0.4 62.8 57.1 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.2 18.7 0.4 63.2 59.1 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 16.2 0.1 54.1 52.0 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.9 19.1 0.4 62.4 57.2 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.3 15.1 0.4 63.8 57.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.5 19.8 0.7 71.0 63.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.2 13.2 0.4 64.9 59.2 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.8 18.9 0.5 65.4 59.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.7 19.1 0.4 60.7 56.1 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.0 19.6 0.8 74.0 66.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.2 17.3 0.4 62.7 56.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.9 18.3 0.4 64.4 59.7 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.9 14.8 15.7 0.5 66.4 62.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.4 19.0 0.7 70.5 64.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 17.8 0.2 56.7 53.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.4 14.5 0.4 66.4 59.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.9 20.2 0.8 72.7 65.4 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------