***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.3 30.8 1.5 73.7 69.6 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 29.9 30.2 31.2 1.6 72.5 67.6 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.0 30.3 30.9 1.6 72.9 68.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.5 28.6 1.6 74.5 71.2 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 30.5 31.0 29.3 1.6 74.5 70.5 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.2 26.4 1.3 71.9 68.5 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 29.8 30.2 31.1 1.6 73.1 67.8 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.3 19.2 27.8 2.4 83.1 77.3 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.0 30.5 2.1 80.0 75.1 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.6 28.6 2.2 81.3 75.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.6 29.0 1.7 76.0 71.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.5 29.0 2.4 83.9 78.4 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.1 28.7 1.8 78.6 73.9 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 29.4 29.9 29.2 1.6 73.4 68.2 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 31.3 32.0 31.4 2.1 80.6 77.1 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.2 31.7 28.9 1.6 75.5 71.5 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.0 30.1 0.9 63.4 59.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.4 27.4 2.0 78.7 73.0 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.9 31.3 1.8 75.6 70.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 24.4 25.1 25.3 1.9 78.5 73.1 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.4 30.9 1.6 73.9 70.0 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.5 29.9 1.0 64.7 60.6 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.7 31.3 2.3 81.7 76.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.8 29.2 1.7 75.3 70.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.4 29.4 1.4 71.3 67.8 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 30.0 30.8 28.5 2.2 82.3 77.4 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.7 29.9 29.9 1.4 71.9 67.9 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.2 31.5 29.8 1.7 75.3 72.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.1 24.9 26.6 2.0 79.3 73.4 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 29.7 30.2 31.3 1.7 74.7 69.8 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------