***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.6 32.5 2.0 78.6 69.9 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.6 32.7 2.1 78.1 69.7 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.3 32.3 1.8 76.0 68.5 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.0 24.5 30.6 1.6 74.5 68.0 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.7 30.4 1.6 74.4 68.2 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.3 28.0 1.5 76.2 68.8 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.6 31.5 32.7 2.2 79.5 70.6 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.1 20.2 29.0 2.1 81.9 73.3 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.4 30.8 1.8 77.1 69.8 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.5 29.4 1.9 79.2 71.1 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.6 30.0 1.7 77.2 70.4 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.3 30.3 2.1 82.3 74.2 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 31.1 31.9 29.6 1.8 78.7 71.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.8 30.1 1.8 75.3 67.7 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.5 32.6 31.5 2.0 80.8 71.9 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.2 29.8 1.5 74.2 68.5 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 30.3 30.6 31.9 1.7 73.4 66.5 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.2 28.6 1.9 77.9 69.8 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 30.3 31.0 32.7 2.1 78.0 69.7 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.3 26.1 26.4 1.7 77.2 69.3 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.3 31.7 1.7 75.6 68.6 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.7 30.8 31.7 1.6 72.2 65.6 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.3 31.1 32.3 2.1 78.9 70.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.7 30.2 1.8 76.7 68.9 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.9 30.8 1.9 78.2 70.1 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.6 30.0 2.0 80.8 73.5 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.6 31.6 2.1 80.4 71.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.4 32.0 30.9 1.6 75.2 68.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.6 27.5 1.8 77.6 69.4 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.5 32.9 2.1 78.9 70.2 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------