***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.3 31.5 1.4 77.4 71.4 28.4 29.1 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.2 31.8 1.5 77.0 70.5 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.2 31.4 1.3 74.7 69.0 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 29.5 1.1 72.0 67.6 21.6 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.8 29.5 1.1 72.8 67.8 28.8 29.6 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.3 27.0 1.0 72.7 67.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.6 30.1 31.8 1.6 78.3 71.5 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 18.4 19.1 28.1 1.7 83.4 76.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.5 30.1 1.4 77.7 71.5 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.4 28.6 1.5 80.1 73.2 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.5 29.1 1.2 76.0 70.3 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.2 29.3 1.7 83.8 77.3 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 30.6 30.9 28.7 1.4 78.2 72.9 28.8 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 29.6 29.8 29.4 1.3 75.5 68.7 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.5 30.9 1.5 79.1 73.8 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 31.2 31.4 28.9 1.1 72.6 68.1 29.4 30.2 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 29.2 29.3 31.0 1.1 70.4 64.7 27.7 28.4 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 28.8 29.1 27.7 1.4 78.5 71.3 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.8 31.9 1.6 78.0 71.5 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 24.7 25.1 25.5 1.3 78.1 70.9 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.0 30.3 30.9 1.3 74.5 69.0 28.4 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 29.6 29.7 30.8 1.1 70.1 64.3 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.1 31.6 1.8 80.9 73.8 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.6 29.4 1.4 76.5 69.7 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.6 29.9 1.3 75.5 70.1 28.6 29.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 30.2 30.7 29.0 1.6 81.7 76.4 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.1 30.7 1.5 78.3 72.1 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 30.9 31.0 30.0 1.1 72.4 68.2 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.2 24.6 26.7 1.4 79.0 71.3 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.1 32.0 1.6 78.1 71.7 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------