***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.4 5.8 4.9 40.8 36.2 29.8 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 8.4 7.1 67.5 49.9 36.8 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.8 5.3 5.5 48.7 39.8 31.0 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.5 34.5 30.4 22.7 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 3.8 4.9 5.2 39.1 31.4 24.6 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 2.3 3.1 4.7 37.3 31.4 22.3 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.4 8.2 73.2 52.6 40.4 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 4.7 5.9 5.6 40.7 31.0 24.6 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 3.2 4.3 5.4 42.0 33.5 26.0 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 3.3 4.5 6.4 44.0 33.1 26.4 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 2.0 2.6 3.9 36.5 31.0 22.8 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.8 3.7 34.5 29.2 22.0 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.4 4.1 35.9 25.9 20.4 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.7 6.3 8.5 55.2 41.1 31.1 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.8 2.6 4.1 34.4 32.4 22.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 1.3 1.6 3.8 34.6 27.6 20.8 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.2 9.1 82.5 58.1 43.2 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 4.3 5.4 7.4 45.3 33.1 26.6 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 4.1 7.8 6.5 61.4 47.2 34.0 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.4 8.3 49.9 34.7 28.3 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.5 4.6 4.6 39.9 35.1 26.9 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.3 9.4 84.4 58.7 43.4 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.5 57.0 45.7 32.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 4.2 5.8 7.0 49.7 37.4 28.9 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.7 4.4 5.1 36.4 29.5 23.6 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.8 34.1 24.7 20.5 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 4.1 4.9 5.4 40.6 34.1 27.5 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 2.5 3.4 4.1 32.1 30.3 21.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 6.2 8.3 8.1 48.7 35.2 27.7 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.3 7.4 6.5 59.2 45.5 34.8 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------