***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 13.1 5.7 82.1 60.6 35.6 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.3 7.2 5.4 73.3 56.6 35.8 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.9 5.7 75.7 58.0 35.7 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.1 18.4 7.7 107.3 67.6 36.7 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.4 11.9 7.9 101.9 66.6 36.8 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.2 16.2 11.2 120.1 71.3 45.7 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.5 8.7 5.2 66.6 53.7 35.6 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 14.8 8.7 89.8 62.7 40.8 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.0 7.7 99.2 66.1 37.6 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.8 18.1 9.2 93.1 64.0 40.6 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.8 13.5 7.2 116.6 70.1 37.9 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.9 12.4 6.3 98.7 65.0 37.9 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.2 10.7 7.5 104.6 67.1 41.5 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.6 17.9 9.3 93.4 64.3 41.2 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.8 9.5 6.9 116.6 70.2 38.4 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.5 10.9 7.5 114.3 69.6 38.6 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.7 5.7 72.7 56.1 36.0 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 14.9 11.0 86.7 62.1 42.1 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 12.7 5.6 79.0 59.1 36.7 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.6 12.4 88.3 61.9 44.9 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.4 12.1 6.3 90.3 63.7 34.9 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.2 13.2 6.5 86.1 61.2 38.2 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.3 12.0 6.3 88.1 62.9 38.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.7 13.6 8.7 82.8 61.2 39.8 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 3.0 11.4 6.9 81.0 59.1 34.0 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.0 12.8 5.7 103.9 66.2 41.7 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.7 10.3 6.4 75.1 57.2 34.1 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.8 16.4 7.7 117.3 70.5 37.4 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.8 19.3 11.9 95.6 64.7 44.6 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.4 11.8 5.4 73.4 57.1 35.6 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------