***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.9 13.8 5.9 100.6 66.7 36.9 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.1 11.3 6.9 85.8 61.4 36.5 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.8 11.6 6.0 87.6 62.8 37.5 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 6.7 4.5 54.6 50.8 33.3 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.5 7.5 5.5 65.5 54.8 33.7 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.9 6.0 57.5 52.2 36.6 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.0 7.5 7.1 82.0 59.9 35.6 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.5 17.5 7.7 94.7 63.2 39.0 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.5 9.8 6.7 77.7 60.0 34.2 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 2.8 10.9 8.0 84.3 60.4 36.7 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.9 8.1 4.3 65.0 53.1 33.2 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.5 9.1 4.5 78.5 57.4 34.7 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.8 4.2 59.6 51.8 34.7 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.4 13.5 9.0 91.6 63.2 36.6 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.3 3.5 50.9 49.7 33.3 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.0 3.5 50.8 48.0 32.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.7 9.3 6.8 79.8 58.5 35.4 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.6 13.3 9.5 79.6 58.1 35.9 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.7 11.4 6.6 92.3 63.7 36.8 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.1 10.5 92.4 62.4 40.9 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.9 11.3 5.6 79.7 60.4 32.3 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.1 7.0 92.7 62.4 37.1 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.5 12.3 6.6 97.0 65.0 36.4 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.9 11.4 8.0 80.1 59.2 35.2 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 2.1 9.0 6.0 75.1 59.1 36.3 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.6 3.7 78.3 58.6 36.0 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.4 11.2 6.7 89.2 63.4 37.6 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.2 3.8 46.8 48.0 32.6 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.0 19.4 10.0 83.9 59.7 36.9 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.5 9.9 6.9 90.1 63.0 37.3 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------