***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.8 17.2 5.2 127.9 72.7 34.4 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.2 4.7 78.5 58.5 37.0 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 12.6 5.0 106.6 68.1 39.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.3 17.5 4.0 91.7 62.2 35.7 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.2 10.2 4.7 103.0 65.7 36.9 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.0 13.5 7.3 98.0 65.5 35.5 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.1 9.7 4.8 77.8 58.4 36.5 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.5 25.8 8.0 127.4 72.4 43.7 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.7 13.3 5.1 104.4 67.2 36.9 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.6 20.5 7.7 118.4 70.5 42.3 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.1 21.8 5.5 153.1 77.9 38.7 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.0 20.2 5.7 142.0 75.8 39.2 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.8 14.0 5.7 115.2 69.6 36.7 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.4 5.6 81.0 59.7 39.7 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 3.3 16.3 3.7 113.3 68.5 34.2 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.9 12.6 4.8 119.3 70.1 36.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.9 10.0 3.9 61.1 52.4 36.2 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.2 8.2 101.3 66.5 44.2 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 13.3 4.5 81.3 59.6 37.0 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.0 14.5 9.5 97.5 65.4 47.0 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.0 13.3 4.2 107.4 67.4 33.1 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 3.2 8.9 4.1 68.4 54.2 35.2 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.7 4.4 79.4 59.5 36.7 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.0 19.3 6.2 98.0 65.2 41.3 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.9 15.0 5.1 107.5 67.0 35.9 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.6 18.7 5.7 152.3 77.9 39.2 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.6 17.5 5.9 118.0 70.3 35.3 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.3 13.1 4.0 98.4 64.5 34.6 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 20.0 8.2 99.5 65.5 44.1 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.4 9.0 5.1 91.9 63.1 36.9 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------