***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 29.1 48.0 21.7 75.3 50.3 41.0 31.9 47.7 66.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 26.5 39.0 24.1 75.5 45.8 39.4 28.3 42.8 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 28.5 41.6 22.2 73.2 47.0 38.7 31.7 43.9 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 35.0 45.4 20.7 63.2 41.4 34.5 37.5 54.5 74.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 23.4 34.2 23.2 68.8 42.9 34.8 27.4 39.7 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 33.0 45.5 29.2 73.3 46.4 39.9 34.0 48.7 65.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.0 33.0 25.3 74.6 44.8 39.1 25.1 37.0 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 44.4 64.5 30.1 79.1 48.5 40.4 47.7 66.4 88.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 26.1 39.4 24.9 73.0 46.7 36.9 30.0 41.8 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 35.7 52.7 31.3 77.3 47.8 38.9 39.3 54.8 72.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 22.3 37.2 21.0 77.7 47.6 37.0 25.5 39.4 56.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.3 40.7 20.2 74.8 47.3 39.1 27.6 43.8 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.3 29.2 21.4 70.4 42.9 36.7 22.5 34.6 49.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 32.6 51.6 32.5 76.9 47.0 39.2 36.5 54.9 77.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 19.1 27.5 18.2 65.0 43.5 35.2 20.3 32.4 47.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.1 27.3 19.6 68.7 42.2 35.2 21.7 32.7 45.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 33.9 45.9 25.5 75.6 46.6 39.9 35.7 48.6 63.0 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 38.0 50.8 36.1 73.5 45.0 38.1 40.5 55.7 73.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 27.3 43.2 23.3 76.3 47.6 40.0 29.1 45.8 66.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 32.0 43.1 40.7 78.3 47.1 41.1 33.5 45.3 59.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 26.1 39.9 20.8 70.1 46.4 36.1 30.6 42.8 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 35.1 48.8 26.9 83.5 51.4 43.1 37.0 47.9 59.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.2 41.3 23.7 77.0 49.2 40.3 29.4 41.9 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 33.7 49.3 29.8 73.1 46.0 38.2 37.5 53.1 71.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 29.5 38.4 23.1 65.6 40.1 33.3 32.8 46.2 61.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.2 32.7 18.9 75.2 46.8 40.0 23.2 35.3 50.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 32.0 45.4 24.4 70.9 44.9 37.1 34.7 50.5 69.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.4 34.5 19.6 62.0 41.7 35.0 27.6 41.4 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 51.5 68.4 38.2 77.5 47.5 40.3 53.9 71.2 90.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.4 36.6 23.9 75.7 46.3 39.5 26.4 39.7 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------