***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 13.6 12.6 15.3 -3.0 6.5 8.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 13.4 12.3 15.2 -3.0 6.5 8.6 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 15.5 14.3 15.6 -2.9 6.0 8.1 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 10.7 10.0 13.3 -2.4 10.2 13.3 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 12.2 11.2 13.7 -2.7 6.9 9.1 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 11.6 11.0 11.5 -2.1 10.8 14.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 14.0 13.1 15.4 -2.8 7.4 9.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 6.6 6.0 11.3 -2.3 10.1 13.1 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 13.6 12.7 14.0 -2.7 7.3 9.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 13.6 13.0 12.3 -2.3 9.9 12.6 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 13.5 12.9 13.8 -2.4 9.7 12.2 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 11.5 11.0 12.6 -2.3 11.5 14.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 12.7 11.7 12.5 -2.7 6.6 9.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 14.3 13.7 13.9 -2.3 9.0 11.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 15.1 14.8 16.1 -2.0 15.2 17.6 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.7 12.7 13.2 -2.6 7.1 9.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 14.7 13.7 15.1 -2.8 7.1 9.5 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 11.9 11.0 11.4 -2.4 8.0 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 13.9 13.0 15.4 -2.9 7.3 9.5 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 7.9 7.1 9.5 -2.4 7.8 10.6 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 13.4 12.3 15.0 -2.7 6.7 8.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 13.6 13.0 15.8 -2.4 10.4 13.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 13.3 12.7 15.8 -2.4 10.5 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 13.8 12.8 13.7 -2.6 6.6 8.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 13.1 11.8 14.2 -3.2 5.7 8.1 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 12.7 12.0 11.4 -2.5 7.6 10.3 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 12.9 11.5 14.6 -3.2 5.7 8.0 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 12.5 12.1 14.3 -2.2 11.9 14.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 10.6 9.9 10.8 -2.3 8.3 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 14.1 13.0 15.5 -2.9 6.9 9.0 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------