***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.9 18.4 -0.9 30.6 34.8 15.0 16.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.5 18.1 -1.0 28.2 32.9 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.6 16.9 18.8 -0.7 33.8 37.3 16.9 18.0 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.4 16.5 -0.3 43.9 45.4 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 12.6 12.9 16.5 -0.7 32.3 36.6 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.5 14.3 -0.4 39.1 42.3 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 14.7 15.1 18.4 -0.8 32.1 35.8 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.7 7.9 13.9 -0.7 31.7 36.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.4 16.5 -0.7 31.9 36.5 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.4 14.9 -0.6 34.7 38.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 -0.8 29.0 34.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.2 15.1 -0.7 32.5 37.1 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.4 -1.1 22.6 27.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.3 16.4 -0.5 37.4 40.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.5 16.2 18.6 -0.2 43.9 45.5 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.4 15.5 -0.8 29.4 33.9 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 15.3 15.7 18.0 -0.9 30.5 34.5 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.1 -0.5 35.9 39.5 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.8 18.3 -0.9 30.4 34.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 8.6 11.9 -0.7 32.0 36.8 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.1 17.7 -0.8 31.4 35.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 14.1 14.8 18.4 -0.6 37.8 40.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.6 18.6 -0.6 37.9 40.7 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.0 16.3 -0.5 36.5 39.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 13.6 13.7 17.0 -1.1 26.6 32.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.3 14.1 -0.7 30.8 35.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.7 17.6 -1.1 27.6 32.4 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.8 17.1 -0.2 44.7 46.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.1 13.3 -0.6 33.2 37.5 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 14.8 15.0 18.5 -1.0 29.8 34.2 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------