***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.4 19.1 -0.3 43.9 45.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 19.0 -0.4 42.3 44.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.7 19.6 -0.2 46.0 47.2 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.8 17.2 0.2 55.2 53.6 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.9 16.7 -0.3 43.5 45.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.7 15.2 0.2 54.8 53.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.0 19.3 -0.2 45.8 47.0 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.5 14.5 -0.4 41.6 44.3 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.3 16.7 -0.3 44.3 45.7 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.6 15.2 15.3 -0.2 44.5 46.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.8 16.3 -0.5 40.4 43.2 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.0 15.4 -0.5 39.9 42.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.5 14.0 14.4 -0.4 39.4 42.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.0 16.8 -0.2 46.6 47.4 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.4 18.9 0.4 58.9 55.8 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.5 15.6 -0.3 43.8 45.5 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.3 18.8 -0.3 43.7 45.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.6 14.3 -0.2 45.5 47.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.6 19.1 -0.4 42.9 44.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.5 11.8 -0.4 40.8 44.5 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.2 18.2 -0.3 44.8 46.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.3 18.9 -0.2 46.0 47.1 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 19.1 -0.2 45.9 46.7 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.2 15.9 16.6 -0.1 46.5 47.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.1 17.5 -0.3 43.4 44.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.7 14.4 14.5 -0.2 45.7 46.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.9 18.3 -0.3 43.5 44.8 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.0 17.7 0.4 58.6 55.9 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.8 13.7 -0.3 43.6 46.1 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 19.3 -0.3 43.8 45.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------