***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 15.2 16.1 19.4 -0.2 46.6 46.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.6 15.7 19.1 -0.2 45.3 46.3 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 16.9 18.2 19.8 -0.1 48.9 48.0 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.3 13.9 17.4 0.3 56.2 52.4 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 13.5 14.5 16.9 -0.2 44.6 45.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 12.7 13.8 15.4 0.2 54.9 51.5 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.0 16.1 19.3 -0.1 47.9 48.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.1 9.0 14.7 -0.3 42.8 45.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 14.8 15.7 16.9 -0.2 45.9 46.7 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 14.7 15.6 15.4 -0.2 45.7 46.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 14.3 15.1 16.5 -0.4 41.6 44.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 12.7 13.3 15.6 -0.4 41.5 44.5 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.3 14.7 -0.3 41.8 44.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 15.4 16.4 16.9 0.0 49.2 48.5 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.8 17.4 19.1 0.5 60.4 54.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.0 15.8 -0.2 45.5 46.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.4 16.4 18.8 -0.2 45.9 46.4 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 13.2 14.2 14.4 -0.1 48.4 48.4 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 14.9 15.8 19.2 -0.2 46.0 46.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 9.9 12.0 -0.3 42.8 45.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 14.6 15.5 18.4 -0.2 46.1 46.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.6 15.5 18.9 0.0 49.1 48.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 14.4 15.5 19.3 -0.1 48.7 48.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 15.1 16.1 16.8 0.0 49.9 49.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 14.7 15.7 17.7 -0.3 44.8 45.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 13.8 14.6 14.7 -0.2 44.8 46.5 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 14.7 16.0 18.5 -0.2 46.0 46.7 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.5 15.1 17.9 0.4 59.9 54.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.1 13.9 -0.1 46.9 47.5 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 15.2 16.2 19.5 -0.2 46.6 47.1 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------