***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.7 18.1 -1.1 17.9 23.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 14.6 14.3 17.8 -1.2 15.7 22.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 17.0 16.9 18.4 -1.0 20.0 26.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.9 16.1 -0.5 31.8 35.8 12.9 13.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 13.3 13.1 15.9 -1.0 18.2 24.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 -0.5 30.2 34.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 15.3 15.1 18.1 -1.0 19.8 26.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 8.2 8.1 13.6 -0.9 19.3 25.7 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 14.7 14.5 16.0 -1.0 18.9 24.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 14.7 14.6 14.4 -0.8 21.3 27.4 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 14.3 14.1 15.7 -1.0 17.9 23.9 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.7 -1.0 19.9 25.7 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 13.5 13.1 14.0 -1.1 13.6 19.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 15.4 15.4 16.0 -0.8 23.2 29.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 16.0 16.4 18.2 -0.3 38.2 40.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 14.8 14.7 15.0 -1.0 18.4 24.2 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 15.8 15.5 17.7 -1.1 16.9 23.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.8 13.6 -0.8 20.6 26.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.8 18.0 -1.1 17.9 24.3 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 9.0 8.7 11.3 -0.9 15.9 22.7 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.4 17.3 -1.0 19.1 25.0 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 14.7 14.6 18.0 -0.8 24.3 30.8 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 14.5 14.5 18.2 -0.8 24.8 30.5 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 15.2 15.0 15.8 -0.8 21.1 27.5 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 14.4 14.1 16.6 -1.2 14.9 20.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.7 -0.9 19.6 24.8 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 14.3 13.9 17.2 -1.2 15.6 21.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.8 -0.4 36.2 39.1 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 12.2 12.1 12.9 -0.8 19.2 25.9 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 15.2 15.0 18.2 -1.1 18.0 24.3 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------