***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.6 30.4 0.2 53.4 52.5 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.9 30.1 -0.2 46.9 47.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.5 30.7 0.2 52.7 52.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 23.5 24.2 28.6 1.0 64.8 60.6 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.8 30.2 28.7 0.1 50.8 50.6 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.3 29.2 26.3 0.4 55.7 54.5 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.2 30.3 0.2 53.2 52.3 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.1 26.6 -0.1 48.9 49.2 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.9 29.3 0.3 53.6 52.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.8 27.6 0.4 55.1 53.8 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.7 28.9 -0.1 48.9 49.4 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.7 28.1 -0.2 46.7 47.7 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.6 29.5 27.8 -0.6 40.7 43.1 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.7 29.0 0.6 58.6 56.6 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 31.1 31.8 31.2 1.0 65.3 61.4 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 31.5 30.7 28.3 -0.2 47.7 48.5 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.3 29.8 -0.1 47.8 48.7 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.9 26.6 0.3 54.8 53.6 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.5 30.3 -0.1 48.2 48.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.2 23.9 -0.2 46.5 47.5 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.8 30.1 0.2 52.8 52.1 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.3 30.1 0.3 54.6 53.8 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.3 30.8 0.4 54.9 53.9 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.3 28.9 0.5 56.4 54.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.0 29.6 28.7 -0.1 48.7 48.9 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.5 27.8 -0.3 45.8 47.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.0 29.4 0.0 50.1 50.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 31.1 31.7 29.6 1.0 64.6 60.8 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.0 25.4 0.0 50.4 50.3 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.9 30.3 0.0 49.6 49.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------