***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.7 31.2 0.5 57.1 55.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.4 30.8 0.2 52.6 52.5 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.6 31.5 0.6 58.2 56.5 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 23.9 23.8 29.9 1.3 67.9 63.8 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.1 29.5 0.6 57.6 56.5 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.2 27.0 0.9 63.4 60.5 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.4 29.5 31.0 0.5 57.4 55.7 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 27.8 0.6 57.2 56.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.7 29.7 0.7 59.4 57.9 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.6 28.5 0.9 61.1 59.1 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.4 29.3 0.4 55.4 55.1 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.5 29.2 0.3 53.9 54.3 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.3 28.0 0.1 51.3 52.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.3 29.1 0.6 58.1 56.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.5 31.6 31.4 1.5 70.7 65.4 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.5 28.9 0.5 56.4 55.9 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.9 30.5 0.2 52.6 52.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.7 27.7 0.9 61.7 59.2 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.9 31.0 0.2 52.7 52.5 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.2 24.8 0.5 57.1 56.0 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.7 30.5 0.6 58.2 56.7 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.5 30.7 0.4 55.0 54.1 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.0 31.2 0.4 55.0 54.1 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.2 29.3 0.8 60.5 58.1 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.9 29.3 0.6 57.6 55.9 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.3 29.1 0.5 56.0 56.2 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.4 30.1 0.5 56.8 55.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.4 31.4 30.4 1.4 68.8 64.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.9 26.4 0.7 58.7 56.9 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.3 31.1 0.4 54.8 54.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------