***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 28.3 30.3 31.6 0.8 61.0 56.1 28.4 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.6 29.6 31.2 0.5 56.1 52.8 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.7 30.0 32.0 0.9 62.5 57.0 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 23.9 24.0 30.2 1.5 70.6 61.9 21.3 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.4 30.7 29.9 0.8 60.8 55.9 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.0 29.8 27.5 1.1 66.9 58.9 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.6 31.3 0.7 59.7 55.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.6 28.4 0.9 62.3 57.1 16.8 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.1 30.3 30.1 1.0 63.1 57.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.7 30.1 29.1 1.2 65.8 59.2 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.0 30.0 29.8 0.6 58.9 54.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.2 29.2 29.8 0.6 57.9 54.2 27.5 28.6 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.3 30.1 28.6 0.3 54.6 52.0 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.5 29.8 29.6 1.0 63.8 57.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.5 31.7 31.6 1.6 72.6 63.5 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 29.0 31.2 29.4 0.7 59.9 55.2 29.2 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.9 30.8 0.4 55.6 52.4 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.8 29.2 28.3 1.3 67.6 60.2 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 29.2 31.5 0.5 56.9 53.4 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.8 25.1 25.6 1.0 64.0 57.9 23.0 24.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.1 30.2 31.0 0.9 62.0 56.6 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.6 31.0 0.6 58.7 54.3 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.6 31.6 0.8 59.8 55.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.3 29.7 29.8 1.2 65.7 59.0 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.3 30.4 29.8 0.8 61.0 56.0 28.5 29.6 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.0 30.2 29.6 0.6 59.6 55.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.7 29.8 30.5 0.7 60.2 55.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.6 31.6 30.7 1.6 71.9 62.8 29.1 30.2 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 22.2 24.6 27.1 1.1 65.2 58.5 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.6 31.5 0.6 58.6 54.5 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------