***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.1 30.1 0.0 49.7 50.1 28.4 29.1 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.6 29.8 -0.5 40.0 42.6 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.9 30.4 -0.1 49.0 49.5 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.6 23.0 28.4 0.7 64.5 61.6 21.6 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.5 28.4 -0.2 47.0 48.0 28.8 29.6 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.5 26.0 0.2 53.9 53.5 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.8 30.0 -0.1 47.5 48.3 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 26.4 -0.2 45.8 47.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.1 28.9 0.0 50.8 51.0 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.0 27.3 0.2 53.2 53.0 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.9 28.4 -0.3 44.0 45.7 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.0 27.8 -0.4 41.7 44.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.6 28.9 27.3 -0.8 35.4 38.8 28.8 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.9 28.5 0.2 54.6 54.1 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.4 30.8 30.7 0.8 65.1 62.1 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.9 28.0 -0.3 43.8 45.7 29.4 30.2 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.0 29.4 -0.5 39.3 42.2 27.7 28.4 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.2 28.0 26.4 0.2 53.5 53.2 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.2 30.0 -0.4 41.9 44.1 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.6 23.7 -0.2 45.1 46.6 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.1 29.6 0.0 49.3 49.7 28.4 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.8 29.8 0.0 49.0 49.7 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.7 30.3 0.0 49.9 50.5 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.6 28.4 0.2 53.8 53.4 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.5 29.2 28.4 -0.2 45.3 46.5 28.6 29.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 28.3 28.8 27.5 -0.5 40.8 43.5 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.7 29.1 -0.2 46.3 47.3 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.7 29.3 0.7 64.2 61.6 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.2 25.2 -0.1 48.4 49.2 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.6 30.0 -0.3 44.2 45.8 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------