***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 3.6 3.8 2.8 21.8 26.9 17.5 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 2.6 3.0 2.3 19.2 25.3 16.0 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.3 18.2 24.0 15.3 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 2.5 2.6 2.4 17.7 22.8 15.6 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.4 18.3 24.8 15.9 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.1 3.3 22.9 25.6 18.0 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 2.5 3.1 2.5 19.9 26.2 16.6 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 4.2 4.2 3.5 21.1 24.5 17.5 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.5 17.9 23.9 15.1 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.3 18.5 23.2 15.7 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 1.6 1.7 2.2 16.1 23.2 14.1 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.7 21.7 26.2 17.1 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.4 2.2 18.4 25.8 16.2 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 2.5 2.0 2.7 16.2 21.4 14.2 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 1.6 1.9 1.9 17.8 26.7 15.8 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.3 2.4 18.9 24.9 15.5 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 3.0 3.8 2.6 21.1 27.5 17.3 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 3.9 3.9 4.3 22.3 24.6 17.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 3.0 3.5 2.5 20.4 25.4 15.7 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 3.6 3.6 4.4 23.9 24.7 19.0 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.1 2.5 18.9 24.4 15.5 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 2.9 4.1 2.8 23.5 28.8 17.1 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.7 20.7 25.5 16.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 3.3 3.0 2.9 17.4 21.2 14.3 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 3.5 4.1 3.1 22.8 28.0 18.2 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 1.8 2.0 1.9 20.5 26.7 17.4 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 3.3 3.3 3.1 23.1 27.7 18.1 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.3 17.1 23.4 14.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 5.7 5.5 4.0 21.6 23.5 17.3 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.2 18.3 24.1 15.6 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------