***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.5 10.0 7.8 67.3 54.2 38.2 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.2 8.7 8.6 87.5 61.5 39.5 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 8.7 8.0 63.2 52.2 38.5 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.7 9.3 6.5 54.6 48.7 36.4 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.1 5.9 49.3 46.2 33.8 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.1 9.2 70.8 52.9 39.6 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.8 9.8 7.7 76.5 57.4 37.5 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.7 8.2 67.2 53.6 39.5 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.2 6.6 49.9 46.6 34.6 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.8 11.3 8.1 59.8 50.8 37.9 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.7 6.1 54.4 46.4 34.2 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.0 6.0 61.9 50.8 36.6 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.4 6.3 61.6 50.9 36.2 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 12.3 10.6 68.4 54.4 40.5 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.4 5.6 55.6 49.5 35.3 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.8 6.2 60.3 50.4 36.0 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.5 11.0 7.6 75.8 56.9 38.3 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 10.5 10.0 62.9 51.1 39.4 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 13.4 8.9 84.7 60.8 40.7 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.2 11.4 74.7 53.7 42.6 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.6 6.8 6.8 52.5 48.0 35.2 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.3 13.2 9.1 87.2 61.3 41.0 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.5 8.5 71.4 56.0 39.2 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.6 9.3 60.4 50.5 38.6 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.0 8.3 8.2 61.1 50.9 37.8 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.0 5.3 54.8 45.6 33.4 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.9 9.2 8.7 67.9 53.7 38.9 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.3 6.6 61.8 52.4 37.2 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.6 11.5 69.4 52.8 41.0 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.5 13.6 8.9 86.5 61.1 41.1 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------