***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.3 12.6 7.7 87.8 62.9 32.1 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 3.1 10.6 5.4 66.6 54.4 31.1 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.7 8.3 6.1 66.6 55.8 31.3 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.3 12.8 5.1 60.8 52.1 32.0 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.9 7.0 4.8 61.3 52.8 30.4 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.9 5.9 4.7 47.8 45.3 29.4 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 3.0 9.7 6.1 76.3 58.5 33.7 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.5 11.3 5.0 53.2 47.1 29.3 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.3 8.9 5.4 64.4 54.2 30.4 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.7 10.8 5.9 58.2 50.1 30.7 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.8 8.7 3.8 54.5 48.7 29.2 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.7 7.8 3.6 50.7 46.5 27.2 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.4 5.2 3.6 44.1 43.9 26.0 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.6 9.4 7.2 62.8 52.5 34.1 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 3.3 10.9 4.6 70.4 56.5 32.4 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 2.4 5.7 3.7 48.8 45.9 27.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.1 12.6 6.2 78.3 58.7 35.7 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 4.7 9.0 6.5 53.2 46.7 31.1 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 3.0 10.3 5.3 64.4 53.5 31.1 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 3.8 6.9 6.4 50.1 43.9 30.8 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.9 9.0 5.9 67.8 56.2 30.5 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.6 9.6 6.4 73.7 56.5 34.9 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.3 8.1 5.5 64.8 54.1 32.7 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 5.0 11.8 6.1 58.3 50.3 32.2 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 3.5 12.9 7.8 86.1 62.1 34.0 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.4 4.7 2.6 40.0 41.0 22.9 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 3.2 14.1 8.2 90.9 63.7 33.8 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.3 8.6 4.7 59.0 51.8 31.2 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.0 11.0 6.8 52.8 45.8 32.1 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.1 6.8 5.7 68.0 55.4 31.0 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------