***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 28.5 35.4 24.7 58.7 37.2 32.0 31.9 47.7 66.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 24.5 32.7 23.4 61.0 38.7 33.4 28.3 42.8 60.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 28.0 31.7 23.5 52.9 33.2 29.7 31.7 43.9 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 33.1 36.7 20.6 47.5 32.1 28.3 37.5 54.5 74.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 22.9 25.8 19.6 46.7 31.0 27.3 27.4 39.7 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 28.8 31.8 25.2 53.3 30.1 27.5 34.0 48.7 65.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.0 28.1 23.2 59.7 37.6 33.0 25.1 37.0 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 40.0 45.1 25.0 50.6 30.7 27.7 47.7 66.4 88.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 24.9 28.6 21.9 48.0 31.0 27.3 30.0 41.8 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 32.7 36.2 26.3 49.0 29.1 26.3 39.3 54.8 72.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 20.5 22.4 18.1 45.5 28.5 25.5 25.5 39.4 56.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 22.5 26.7 18.2 47.9 31.9 27.7 27.6 43.8 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 18.0 21.7 18.5 47.6 31.7 26.6 22.5 34.6 49.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 30.8 34.6 30.7 54.7 31.3 28.8 36.5 54.9 77.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 18.0 22.3 16.6 47.7 36.0 30.8 20.3 32.4 47.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 17.8 20.6 18.3 47.5 31.1 26.7 21.7 32.7 45.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 33.1 40.0 23.8 61.3 39.0 33.8 35.7 48.6 63.0 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 33.8 36.4 30.9 50.0 28.2 26.2 40.5 55.7 73.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 24.9 33.9 24.0 60.4 38.1 33.0 29.1 45.8 66.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 28.5 30.4 33.1 54.0 28.6 27.5 33.5 45.3 59.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 26.1 30.3 22.2 50.3 32.8 28.9 30.6 42.8 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 33.6 41.6 25.9 64.0 40.3 34.5 37.0 47.9 59.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 25.7 31.2 24.5 57.4 35.7 31.5 29.4 41.9 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 31.0 34.3 27.4 50.1 29.3 26.9 37.5 53.1 71.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 30.1 36.2 26.6 58.7 37.6 32.8 32.8 46.2 61.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 19.6 22.3 14.9 46.8 31.7 26.3 23.2 35.3 50.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 32.0 39.3 27.1 61.2 38.5 33.4 34.7 50.5 69.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 24.3 29.0 19.5 48.5 34.4 29.4 27.6 41.4 57.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 47.0 49.2 33.2 52.4 28.2 27.0 53.9 71.2 90.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 23.6 29.9 23.6 59.4 37.6 32.9 26.4 39.7 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------