***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.4 -1.1 28.1 28.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 14.9 17.8 -0.5 39.3 39.8 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.0 16.8 17.6 -0.7 35.2 35.8 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 11.3 11.5 15.1 -1.1 26.8 27.8 11.9 13.0 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.3 15.7 -0.7 35.0 35.7 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.4 13.7 -0.7 35.1 35.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.0 17.8 -0.8 34.3 35.0 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 7.0 7.2 12.9 -1.2 26.3 27.2 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.0 -0.8 32.5 33.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.4 14.1 -0.8 31.9 32.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.3 15.1 -0.7 33.5 34.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.1 13.9 -1.0 29.3 30.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.2 14.9 -0.1 48.1 48.2 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.3 15.9 -0.6 35.3 36.0 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 15.3 15.4 16.7 -1.2 23.9 25.3 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.1 15.3 -0.4 40.3 40.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 16.7 16.3 17.7 -0.2 44.9 45.3 15.7 16.6 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.7 13.1 -0.8 31.4 32.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.1 17.7 -0.5 38.5 39.1 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 8.2 8.4 10.9 -1.1 26.8 27.7 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.1 14.2 17.1 -0.9 31.6 32.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.5 14.8 17.6 -0.5 40.1 40.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.4 17.4 -0.6 36.4 37.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.0 15.7 -0.6 36.3 36.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 13.9 14.0 16.4 -1.0 29.1 29.8 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.3 13.5 13.7 -0.7 33.6 34.7 13.4 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 13.7 13.9 16.9 -1.0 29.7 30.5 14.1 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.9 -1.0 27.9 29.0 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.5 11.7 12.7 -0.8 32.2 33.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.1 17.8 -0.8 34.0 34.7 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------