***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.0 18.8 0.0 49.0 49.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.9 19.1 0.1 52.7 52.4 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.2 18.2 18.9 0.3 55.2 54.3 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.5 17.0 -0.1 47.9 47.9 12.5 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.3 16.9 0.2 54.4 53.2 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.1 15.4 0.1 51.6 51.4 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.2 19.1 0.1 51.2 51.0 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.2 15.0 0.2 54.2 53.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.7 17.1 0.2 55.3 54.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 15.5 0.2 55.1 54.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.3 16.6 0.4 58.8 56.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.4 16.1 0.3 55.9 54.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.5 15.8 0.2 55.2 53.8 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.4 17.2 0.4 58.0 56.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.4 17.6 -0.3 43.7 44.5 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.9 16.5 0.3 56.9 55.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.9 18.8 0.3 55.1 54.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.9 14.8 0.3 56.1 55.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.0 19.0 0.2 54.7 54.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.8 13.3 0.2 54.5 53.7 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 18.1 0.1 52.9 52.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.5 18.5 0.1 52.1 51.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.5 18.7 0.3 56.7 55.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.1 16.9 0.3 57.6 56.4 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.1 17.2 -0.1 47.3 47.4 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.3 15.6 0.0 49.6 49.4 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.3 18.0 -0.1 48.3 48.3 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.1 17.4 -0.1 48.0 48.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 14.4 0.3 56.8 55.9 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.2 19.1 0.1 52.0 51.7 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------