***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 18.8 -0.4 42.0 45.9 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.9 19.3 0.0 49.9 50.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.9 19.0 -0.2 46.3 48.8 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.7 16.6 -0.8 31.7 37.3 12.7 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.4 13.8 16.6 -0.5 38.6 42.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.2 -0.5 39.0 41.8 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.1 19.2 -0.1 47.1 49.3 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.8 15.1 -0.3 42.9 46.2 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.3 16.9 -0.3 41.7 45.3 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.2 15.4 -0.4 41.6 45.3 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 16.5 -0.3 43.9 46.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 16.1 -0.2 44.7 47.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.2 15.6 -0.3 42.8 44.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.0 17.1 -0.2 44.6 47.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.0 16.0 17.2 -1.0 28.9 34.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.5 16.3 -0.4 41.4 43.9 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.8 16.9 18.9 0.2 54.1 53.6 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.5 14.7 -0.3 41.9 45.3 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.0 19.2 0.0 50.7 51.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.7 13.3 -0.3 43.6 46.1 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.2 18.0 -0.3 41.9 45.8 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.6 18.7 0.0 50.8 51.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.4 18.8 0.0 49.3 50.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.8 16.8 -0.2 44.2 47.4 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 -0.6 36.6 41.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.2 15.5 -0.4 41.1 43.2 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.9 17.8 -0.4 40.2 44.2 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.8 17.1 -0.9 31.4 36.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.9 14.2 -0.3 42.4 45.4 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 19.3 -0.1 47.4 49.3 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------