***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 15.3 15.8 18.7 -0.4 41.5 44.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.8 19.1 0.0 49.2 49.4 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.9 17.9 18.9 -0.2 46.7 47.9 17.1 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.3 16.5 -0.8 30.7 36.8 12.4 13.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.2 16.4 -0.5 37.5 42.1 14.0 14.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.0 14.9 -0.6 34.9 39.4 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.0 19.1 -0.2 47.0 48.2 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.8 14.8 -0.3 42.0 45.7 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.4 16.7 -0.4 40.1 44.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.4 15.2 -0.4 41.2 45.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.1 16.3 -0.3 42.6 45.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.4 15.9 -0.3 43.2 46.2 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.3 15.4 -0.4 38.7 42.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.2 16.9 -0.2 44.9 47.2 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 15.8 15.8 17.1 -1.0 26.9 34.0 16.1 16.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.7 16.1 -0.4 39.1 42.6 15.4 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.5 18.6 0.0 50.7 50.9 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.9 14.5 -0.3 43.0 46.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.0 19.1 0.0 50.2 49.9 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.3 9.9 13.0 -0.3 42.2 45.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.2 17.8 -0.4 40.2 44.0 14.9 15.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.4 18.4 -0.1 47.3 48.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.5 18.7 0.0 49.5 49.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.9 16.7 -0.2 45.4 47.5 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.1 16.8 -0.7 34.5 39.7 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.3 15.3 -0.6 35.6 41.1 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.3 17.7 -0.5 38.5 42.4 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.9 17.0 -0.9 30.1 36.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.8 14.0 -0.3 44.0 46.7 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.1 19.2 -0.1 47.6 48.3 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------