***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 18.4 -0.5 35.2 37.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 18.8 -0.1 46.9 47.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.7 18.6 -0.2 43.9 45.2 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.6 16.3 -0.7 26.0 29.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.9 16.4 -0.4 36.6 39.0 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.8 -0.4 35.3 37.8 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.9 18.8 -0.2 42.8 44.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.6 14.5 -0.4 36.0 38.6 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.2 16.7 -0.3 38.2 40.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.1 15.1 -0.3 38.2 40.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.9 16.1 -0.2 41.6 43.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.0 15.5 -0.3 39.0 41.1 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 15.4 -0.2 44.4 45.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.0 16.8 -0.2 43.6 45.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.9 15.8 17.2 -0.9 22.2 25.9 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.2 15.5 16.0 -0.2 41.4 43.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.6 18.5 0.1 51.8 51.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.5 14.3 -0.3 39.4 41.3 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 18.7 -0.1 48.0 48.6 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 12.6 -0.4 37.4 39.7 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.0 17.7 -0.4 37.1 39.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.3 18.3 -0.1 46.4 47.1 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.2 18.4 -0.1 47.2 48.0 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.7 16.5 -0.2 43.9 45.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 14.8 14.8 16.8 -0.6 30.1 33.1 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.0 -0.4 35.2 37.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.9 14.9 17.6 -0.5 33.9 36.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.9 -0.7 26.5 29.9 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 12.8 13.8 -0.3 40.8 42.4 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.9 18.9 -0.2 43.3 44.7 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------