***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.1 28.1 -1.2 29.8 31.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 27.7 28.5 -0.8 36.8 37.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.9 27.3 28.2 -1.0 32.7 34.2 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 19.5 19.6 25.6 -1.7 21.6 23.9 20.6 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 26.6 26.8 26.0 -1.7 22.4 24.7 27.8 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 25.7 25.6 22.9 -2.2 17.7 19.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.6 28.3 -0.9 34.4 35.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 14.6 14.5 23.4 -2.1 19.1 21.6 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 26.4 26.5 26.9 -1.5 24.8 27.0 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 25.9 26.0 24.7 -1.8 22.5 24.9 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 26.1 26.2 25.5 -1.8 21.7 24.0 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 25.4 25.4 24.6 -2.0 20.8 23.4 26.6 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 26.7 26.7 24.6 -2.0 20.3 22.5 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 26.5 27.1 26.6 -1.0 34.2 35.5 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 27.8 28.0 27.6 -1.6 23.3 25.1 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 27.4 27.4 25.3 -1.9 21.5 23.8 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.5 27.3 28.3 -0.7 38.9 39.9 26.9 28.2 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 25.3 25.5 23.7 -1.7 24.6 26.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.2 28.5 -0.8 37.1 38.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 20.8 20.6 21.2 -2.2 19.4 21.8 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 26.6 26.7 27.7 -1.5 25.7 27.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.1 27.6 28.0 -0.8 36.6 37.5 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.3 28.1 -0.8 36.5 37.5 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 26.0 26.4 26.1 -1.3 29.6 31.4 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 26.9 27.1 26.6 -1.5 25.4 27.5 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 26.7 26.5 23.9 -2.4 16.6 19.0 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.4 -1.2 29.4 31.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 27.7 27.8 26.4 -1.7 21.6 23.7 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 20.4 20.5 22.7 -1.8 23.6 25.7 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.2 28.5 -1.0 34.0 35.3 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------