***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.0 29.4 -0.1 48.5 48.9 27.8 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 29.4 29.1 29.7 0.1 51.5 51.6 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 29.3 29.3 29.8 0.3 53.5 53.4 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 23.2 22.3 28.0 -0.4 44.2 45.2 21.4 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.3 29.9 28.1 0.1 50.9 51.0 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.6 26.0 0.0 50.7 50.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.7 29.5 0.0 50.1 50.2 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.5 26.7 0.4 56.2 55.3 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.5 28.4 0.3 53.4 53.1 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.5 27.2 0.4 55.2 54.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.9 27.9 0.4 55.9 55.2 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.3 27.9 0.6 58.1 56.8 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.2 27.3 0.4 55.2 54.5 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.3 28.0 0.5 56.2 55.7 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.9 29.7 28.4 -0.7 39.9 41.6 29.2 30.4 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 31.0 30.8 27.7 0.3 53.6 53.2 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.7 28.5 29.4 0.1 51.8 51.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.8 26.4 0.5 56.5 55.8 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 28.9 28.8 29.8 0.3 53.3 53.2 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.6 24.5 0.4 56.0 55.0 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.4 29.1 0.1 51.6 51.6 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.2 28.8 29.1 0.0 49.7 49.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.1 29.6 0.4 55.5 55.2 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.0 28.0 0.5 56.3 55.8 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.1 27.9 -0.3 45.9 46.6 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.7 27.4 0.2 53.3 52.8 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.5 28.5 -0.2 47.4 47.9 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.8 29.9 28.2 -0.4 43.7 45.0 29.1 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.2 25.4 0.5 56.9 56.1 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.8 29.8 0.1 51.2 51.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------