***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 27.7 28.7 29.6 -0.7 38.7 43.7 28.3 29.6 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 27.9 29.4 30.2 -0.1 48.4 49.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.5 29.1 30.0 -0.3 45.9 48.1 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 20.8 21.2 28.2 -1.1 33.0 39.0 21.2 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.3 -0.6 40.5 44.4 28.5 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.7 26.2 -0.6 40.2 43.5 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.7 29.0 29.9 -0.3 45.7 48.7 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.2 17.6 26.8 -0.2 47.3 48.2 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 27.7 29.0 28.5 -0.4 43.7 46.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.4 28.9 27.3 -0.3 46.1 47.7 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.7 29.2 28.1 -0.2 46.3 48.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.7 28.1 -0.1 49.0 49.6 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.3 27.6 -0.3 44.8 47.0 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.4 29.1 28.2 0.0 50.5 50.3 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 28.7 28.9 28.6 -1.2 30.5 36.5 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 28.8 29.9 27.9 -0.4 43.2 46.2 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.4 29.0 29.8 0.0 49.9 51.0 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.5 28.1 26.5 -0.1 48.4 48.9 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 27.4 29.1 30.3 0.0 50.1 50.6 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.4 23.9 24.5 -0.2 47.2 48.0 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.8 29.2 -0.6 41.2 45.0 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 27.9 29.2 29.6 -0.2 47.5 48.9 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.3 29.2 29.9 0.1 51.4 51.2 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 27.1 28.8 28.1 -0.1 49.2 49.7 27.5 28.9 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.9 28.4 28.0 -1.0 33.9 40.2 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.8 27.7 -0.4 44.2 46.5 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 27.5 28.3 28.7 -0.8 36.8 42.5 28.0 29.3 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.8 29.2 28.5 -1.0 33.6 39.1 29.1 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.5 25.4 -0.1 48.4 48.8 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 27.6 29.1 30.2 -0.2 46.4 48.6 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------