***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.6 29.6 -0.7 41.0 42.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.9 30.3 0.0 49.7 49.5 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.6 30.0 -0.3 46.1 46.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 20.4 20.8 27.8 -1.3 32.1 36.2 20.9 22.2 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.7 27.9 -0.9 38.1 40.9 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.6 27.0 25.6 -1.2 32.5 37.0 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.5 30.0 -0.2 47.4 47.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 16.1 17.0 26.2 -0.7 40.4 43.3 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.5 28.5 28.2 -0.6 41.4 43.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 27.2 28.2 26.9 -0.6 41.7 43.9 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.4 27.6 -0.7 40.6 43.2 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.7 27.7 27.5 -0.7 40.7 43.9 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.6 26.9 -0.9 37.3 41.2 28.2 29.5 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.1 28.5 27.9 -0.2 47.7 48.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 28.3 28.5 28.3 -1.5 28.6 33.6 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.5 29.2 27.4 -0.9 36.8 40.6 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.7 28.4 29.8 0.1 50.8 50.3 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 26.3 27.4 26.1 -0.4 44.2 45.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.0 28.6 30.3 0.0 50.6 50.2 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 22.3 23.3 24.0 -0.6 42.0 44.3 22.7 23.9 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.6 28.5 29.1 -0.7 41.2 43.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.1 28.7 29.6 -0.1 48.8 48.9 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.7 29.9 0.0 50.4 50.1 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 26.9 28.1 27.9 -0.3 46.3 47.1 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.7 28.3 27.9 -1.1 36.0 38.7 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.3 27.1 -0.9 36.6 40.6 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 27.2 28.0 28.6 -0.8 39.1 41.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 28.2 28.4 28.1 -1.4 30.5 35.3 28.6 29.8 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.9 25.0 -0.4 44.5 45.8 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.2 28.6 30.3 -0.2 47.8 48.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------