***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 28.3 28.6 29.2 -0.7 35.8 38.5 28.4 29.2 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.9 29.7 -0.2 46.1 47.2 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.7 29.5 -0.3 43.0 44.7 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 21.2 21.2 27.4 -1.1 25.6 29.5 21.6 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 28.5 28.8 27.6 -0.8 32.5 35.8 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 27.2 27.3 25.1 -1.0 27.8 31.7 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.6 29.4 -0.4 42.9 44.7 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.7 17.0 25.8 -0.6 35.7 38.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 28.1 28.5 28.0 -0.6 37.0 39.7 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.2 26.5 -0.6 37.2 40.0 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 28.1 28.5 27.2 -0.6 36.6 39.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.9 27.0 -0.5 38.2 40.5 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 28.5 28.8 26.6 -0.7 34.1 37.1 28.7 29.6 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.6 27.7 -0.2 46.5 47.8 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 29.0 29.0 28.2 -1.2 23.5 27.5 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 29.1 29.4 27.1 -0.7 33.3 36.5 29.4 30.3 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.3 29.3 -0.1 47.6 48.7 27.7 28.5 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.5 25.7 -0.4 40.3 42.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.5 29.7 -0.1 47.8 48.6 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.2 23.6 -0.6 35.9 38.8 23.1 23.8 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 28.2 28.5 28.8 -0.7 35.8 38.6 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.7 29.1 -0.3 44.5 46.0 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.7 29.4 -0.1 48.8 49.5 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.2 27.5 -0.3 43.8 45.4 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 28.4 28.4 27.6 -1.0 29.3 32.8 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 28.2 28.4 26.5 -0.9 31.1 34.5 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.2 28.3 -0.8 33.6 36.6 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 29.0 29.0 27.8 -1.2 25.3 29.3 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 22.4 22.9 24.6 -0.5 39.7 41.9 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.6 29.7 -0.3 43.6 45.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------