***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.6 8.0 62.1 48.9 40.2 3.9 8.0 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 9.3 7.8 75.1 53.6 44.0 4.4 8.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.3 82.2 56.8 46.7 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.9 12.5 11.5 98.5 62.1 54.0 3.5 7.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.9 11.5 90.2 58.7 49.8 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.4 17.4 17.7 145.9 76.5 67.8 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.1 6.8 62.9 47.6 40.5 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 14.2 18.9 14.4 107.6 65.8 56.0 5.7 11.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.6 12.2 87.3 58.4 49.2 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.6 14.7 96.4 62.0 51.9 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.1 9.5 83.5 56.0 46.1 2.4 5.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.2 14.7 11.4 109.3 66.3 56.5 3.2 7.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.6 9.3 13.0 119.5 69.7 59.8 1.6 4.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 10.6 12.2 13.5 93.2 61.1 52.0 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.6 9.5 90.6 59.7 51.8 2.4 4.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.5 6.4 11.9 111.9 66.9 56.9 1.4 3.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.5 7.5 6.4 60.4 47.4 39.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.7 12.8 18.5 109.4 66.0 56.0 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.6 8.5 79.9 55.7 45.4 4.5 8.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.6 14.3 20.4 132.3 73.1 64.4 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.4 10.7 86.0 58.8 50.9 3.4 5.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.1 6.8 68.0 49.9 41.9 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.4 9.3 78.7 55.0 45.1 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.7 11.3 14.6 97.3 62.6 52.7 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.3 10.8 79.2 53.9 46.9 3.8 7.3 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 10.0 11.9 12.7 136.2 74.3 63.6 2.2 4.9 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 9.2 10.1 71.2 51.6 43.7 3.7 8.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.6 11.4 102.6 63.9 55.2 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 11.5 15.8 18.4 110.6 66.7 57.6 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.3 8.3 74.9 54.6 44.9 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------