***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 16.9 8.3 93.3 65.5 40.8 3.5 8.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 11.3 9.3 99.9 66.8 43.7 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.0 17.6 9.3 111.3 69.5 48.1 3.5 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 16.6 8.9 87.9 64.3 46.8 4.3 9.5 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.0 8.9 81.6 62.9 43.6 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.8 16.7 12.3 97.2 66.2 51.7 4.3 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.9 15.0 10.6 108.7 68.9 44.6 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.9 16.2 8.6 87.4 62.2 41.2 4.7 10.2 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.4 9.8 87.1 64.3 41.3 2.6 6.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.9 17.0 10.2 88.7 63.4 41.9 4.8 10.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.4 9.0 6.3 81.9 61.2 37.8 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.9 5.9 84.2 61.1 39.4 3.3 7.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.5 7.3 84.5 62.3 46.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 18.2 11.7 94.6 65.0 50.1 4.0 9.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.1 13.5 8.5 114.8 70.3 50.7 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.1 7.0 87.1 62.9 45.2 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.9 13.8 9.6 87.4 62.8 39.1 4.0 8.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 15.7 12.5 88.5 63.0 44.9 4.8 9.8 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 16.9 8.6 96.2 65.6 43.8 3.9 9.0 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.2 10.3 74.5 57.2 43.1 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.6 8.9 94.1 65.9 42.8 3.8 8.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.2 16.0 9.1 85.9 62.6 41.0 5.1 10.3 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 12.4 8.4 92.0 64.3 44.0 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 17.6 11.8 101.5 66.9 49.7 3.6 8.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.7 10.3 82.8 62.1 44.2 3.6 8.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.5 5.3 80.6 60.5 44.5 3.8 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 13.0 10.4 88.6 63.7 42.5 3.5 7.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.0 15.9 8.1 101.1 67.2 46.3 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 17.8 12.0 83.1 60.6 44.8 5.4 11.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.5 17.0 9.5 109.9 69.4 46.2 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------