***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 17.5 9.0 134.7 74.9 44.5 3.5 7.3 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.7 16.0 8.7 102.8 67.7 46.1 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.7 15.6 8.3 119.9 72.0 47.9 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.8 12.8 9.8 115.9 70.5 42.2 2.8 6.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.9 12.4 9.4 110.8 69.6 43.9 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.0 9.6 13.0 119.4 71.3 48.1 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.1 8.9 104.6 68.0 44.7 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.6 19.2 11.2 108.4 68.6 46.2 4.6 9.7 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.1 14.0 9.5 109.6 69.5 45.6 2.7 6.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.6 15.3 11.9 108.3 68.8 47.3 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.9 16.0 8.9 127.2 72.9 44.5 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.3 14.5 8.8 135.2 74.3 44.6 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.5 13.1 10.8 135.7 74.5 47.1 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.1 23.6 13.2 138.7 75.4 51.5 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.8 9.7 8.9 130.8 73.8 43.0 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.6 14.1 9.9 137.9 75.1 47.1 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.1 15.6 8.9 103.2 67.5 42.3 3.6 8.2 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 18.8 13.9 106.6 68.1 48.8 3.7 8.8 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.9 15.4 8.7 109.0 69.5 48.0 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.6 14.2 98.3 65.6 48.4 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.7 16.4 8.1 117.2 71.3 44.3 3.6 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.4 9.5 101.3 67.4 45.9 3.6 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.7 18.5 9.3 124.4 73.1 49.8 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 16.5 11.7 121.8 71.7 50.1 3.4 7.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 16.5 10.9 126.9 73.3 45.6 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.6 11.2 7.8 125.9 72.5 45.9 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 18.5 11.0 133.7 74.7 45.5 2.6 6.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.3 12.4 9.8 128.5 73.3 42.4 2.4 5.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.8 23.8 14.2 105.5 67.7 48.6 6.5 13.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.4 13.5 8.8 111.6 70.0 47.5 3.0 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------