***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.2 16.9 7.1 123.3 72.4 44.4 4.3 8.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.5 12.2 5.6 84.8 61.4 38.6 4.2 8.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.2 13.7 6.4 109.1 68.6 42.1 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.0 37.9 11.4 190.4 83.5 52.5 6.4 12.5 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 15.9 10.6 155.9 78.3 47.8 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.2 31.5 16.2 174.5 81.3 55.7 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.7 9.7 5.9 86.7 62.9 40.9 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 22.3 9.7 112.0 69.1 43.6 6.5 12.3 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.2 17.6 9.4 121.6 71.9 42.3 4.4 8.7 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.4 20.4 10.1 113.3 69.6 43.9 5.2 10.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.7 22.3 9.1 149.2 77.1 45.3 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.0 18.7 8.3 127.9 72.9 42.3 4.4 8.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.1 19.7 11.4 147.5 77.2 50.2 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.2 17.0 9.2 106.8 68.4 44.1 4.0 8.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.7 37.7 10.4 233.3 88.5 52.9 4.6 9.3 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 18.6 11.2 171.3 80.6 50.5 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.7 11.8 5.6 76.4 58.5 38.0 4.1 8.6 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 15.9 10.9 105.6 67.4 45.5 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 3.0 13.7 5.7 92.6 63.4 38.1 3.7 8.0 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 14.4 10.8 95.0 64.0 45.3 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.3 15.8 7.2 111.2 69.5 40.2 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.5 5.0 68.3 55.5 37.1 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.9 13.4 6.4 110.5 68.8 38.4 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.6 22.7 9.3 112.1 69.5 45.1 6.7 12.4 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.1 18.3 9.8 136.1 75.1 48.2 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.6 22.0 8.7 170.1 80.9 50.4 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 17.4 9.0 128.3 73.7 47.9 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.3 31.2 11.5 217.0 86.5 52.4 4.1 8.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 20.8 11.4 105.4 66.8 45.1 7.4 12.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.6 9.6 6.0 97.3 65.5 41.3 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------