***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 15.8 17.2 -0.8 33.5 34.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.5 17.3 -0.7 34.9 35.8 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.0 17.1 17.6 -0.4 40.6 41.1 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 11.0 11.3 15.0 -1.2 25.9 26.9 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 12.4 12.6 15.1 -1.0 27.3 28.6 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.1 -1.1 24.9 26.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.6 14.8 17.3 -0.9 32.0 32.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 7.0 7.0 12.8 -1.1 26.2 27.6 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.7 -0.9 29.8 31.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.3 14.0 -0.8 32.1 33.5 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 -1.1 26.3 27.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.4 -1.2 22.9 24.4 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.1 13.9 -0.9 28.9 30.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.1 15.6 -0.7 34.4 35.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.4 15.6 16.9 -1.0 28.9 29.8 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 14.2 14.2 14.5 -1.0 27.5 29.1 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.9 15.8 16.9 -0.7 35.7 36.5 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.4 12.9 -0.8 30.2 31.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.0 17.4 -0.5 39.0 39.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 8.1 8.3 10.6 -1.0 27.2 28.7 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.1 16.9 -0.8 32.2 33.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.0 17.5 -0.2 45.4 45.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.1 14.5 17.2 -0.4 40.8 41.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.9 14.8 15.4 -0.6 35.1 36.3 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 13.5 13.6 16.0 -1.2 26.1 27.3 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 12.7 12.5 12.6 -1.5 17.3 19.1 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.7 16.4 -1.1 27.6 28.6 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 12.6 12.8 15.7 -1.2 24.5 25.7 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.8 12.5 -0.6 36.3 37.6 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.1 17.6 -0.7 35.7 36.4 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------