***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 16.3 18.3 -0.2 45.3 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 18.3 -0.1 46.8 47.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.8 18.3 -0.1 47.9 48.4 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.3 16.1 -0.8 29.6 35.4 12.5 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.9 -0.7 31.9 36.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.0 -0.8 28.6 34.5 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 18.3 -0.3 44.7 45.8 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.8 8.1 13.9 -0.7 33.1 37.8 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.0 16.3 -0.5 37.9 41.3 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.3 14.7 14.6 -0.6 35.9 39.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.3 15.4 -0.6 33.8 38.4 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.3 12.5 14.8 -0.7 31.7 37.0 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.4 14.3 -0.9 27.7 33.5 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.6 16.1 -0.5 38.6 41.4 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.1 17.2 -0.6 35.8 40.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.5 15.0 -0.9 27.9 33.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 18.0 -0.1 47.8 48.0 15.9 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 12.6 13.0 13.8 -0.6 35.0 38.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.8 18.3 -0.1 48.9 48.8 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 8.7 9.0 12.0 -0.8 31.8 36.3 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.0 17.5 -0.3 42.1 44.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.5 18.0 0.1 51.3 50.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 18.0 -0.1 48.6 48.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.0 -0.4 40.7 43.0 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.8 16.7 -0.4 40.4 43.6 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 13.3 13.2 14.0 -1.2 22.1 28.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.8 17.4 -0.3 42.9 45.0 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.1 13.3 16.5 -0.9 28.2 34.2 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.2 -0.5 36.4 39.5 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.0 18.5 -0.2 46.6 47.2 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------