***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 16.1 18.5 0.1 51.4 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.0 18.6 0.0 49.5 48.8 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.1 18.4 18.6 0.1 52.9 51.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.6 13.2 16.5 -0.5 38.0 42.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.4 14.2 16.3 -0.3 42.0 44.7 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.6 -0.4 40.5 43.6 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.4 16.3 18.5 -0.1 47.3 47.5 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.0 14.5 -0.3 43.2 45.0 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.8 16.7 -0.1 48.5 49.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.5 15.1 -0.2 45.6 47.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.1 15.9 -0.2 44.2 46.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.2 15.4 -0.3 43.0 45.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.1 14.7 -0.4 40.3 44.0 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.1 16.6 -0.2 45.6 47.3 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.0 16.8 17.7 -0.2 44.5 46.8 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.5 15.5 -0.4 39.6 43.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.9 16.8 18.1 0.0 49.9 48.8 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.7 14.3 -0.3 43.7 45.9 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 15.2 16.2 18.6 0.1 52.0 50.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 9.7 12.6 -0.4 41.5 43.4 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.8 17.8 0.0 50.7 50.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.9 18.2 0.2 54.4 51.7 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.7 18.3 0.1 52.6 51.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.1 16.4 -0.1 47.7 48.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.7 17.0 -0.1 47.0 47.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.9 14.5 -0.6 33.0 39.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.8 17.7 0.0 48.9 49.1 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.1 16.9 -0.5 37.5 42.1 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.1 13.7 -0.3 43.8 45.4 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 15.4 16.4 18.7 0.0 50.0 49.3 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------