***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.3 19.0 0.3 56.4 55.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 19.1 0.3 55.8 54.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.4 19.1 0.5 59.7 57.9 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.1 16.8 -0.2 45.2 47.3 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.5 16.6 -0.1 48.0 49.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.5 14.9 -0.1 46.5 47.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 19.0 0.1 53.0 52.7 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.0 14.8 -0.1 47.7 48.9 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.9 17.1 0.1 53.0 53.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.7 15.4 0.0 50.4 51.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.4 16.2 0.0 50.9 51.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.6 15.7 0.0 49.8 50.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.7 15.1 0.0 49.4 50.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.4 17.0 0.1 51.7 52.2 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.9 17.9 0.1 51.2 51.0 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 15.8 -0.1 48.2 49.5 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.6 18.5 0.2 55.1 54.0 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.1 14.6 -0.1 48.2 49.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 19.1 0.4 58.7 56.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.8 12.9 -0.3 43.7 45.9 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.7 18.2 0.3 55.8 55.5 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 18.6 0.4 58.5 56.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.7 18.8 0.5 59.8 57.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.2 16.8 0.2 53.9 53.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 17.4 0.1 52.7 52.8 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.6 14.9 -0.3 43.3 45.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 18.1 0.2 54.0 53.4 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.5 17.2 -0.2 45.4 47.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.0 14.0 -0.1 47.6 48.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 19.2 0.3 56.4 55.2 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------