***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 28.8 27.9 -0.5 41.6 42.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.3 28.1 -0.3 45.1 45.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.3 28.3 28.0 -0.4 43.9 44.3 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 19.9 20.1 25.3 -1.5 26.8 28.3 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 27.0 27.4 25.7 -1.4 28.1 29.6 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 25.5 25.0 22.1 -2.5 13.3 15.2 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 27.9 27.7 -0.7 40.2 40.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 14.6 14.5 22.8 -2.1 19.2 21.0 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 26.4 27.0 26.5 -1.2 30.9 32.2 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 26.0 26.3 24.3 -1.6 26.3 27.8 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 26.3 26.5 25.0 -1.7 24.0 25.7 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 25.3 25.1 24.0 -2.1 19.1 21.0 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 26.7 26.5 24.1 -2.1 19.1 21.1 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.0 25.7 -1.1 33.1 34.2 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 27.9 28.2 27.2 -1.5 26.2 27.6 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 27.5 27.5 24.8 -1.8 22.6 24.4 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 28.4 27.9 27.8 -0.2 47.4 47.4 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 25.2 25.3 22.9 -1.8 23.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.0 28.2 -0.2 47.6 47.7 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 20.5 20.2 20.4 -2.4 16.3 18.4 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.4 -1.1 33.2 34.4 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 28.8 28.8 28.1 0.2 53.2 52.7 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.0 27.8 -0.3 45.9 46.1 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 26.1 26.5 25.4 -1.2 30.7 31.9 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 27.2 27.6 26.2 -1.2 31.6 32.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 26.5 26.1 23.4 -2.6 13.5 15.5 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.3 26.9 -0.9 35.9 36.8 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 27.7 27.8 25.8 -1.9 22.0 23.6 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 20.2 20.2 21.9 -2.0 20.7 22.4 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.0 28.2 -0.4 43.7 44.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------