***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 30.4 30.0 0.5 57.8 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.0 29.9 0.5 57.2 55.1 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.3 30.1 0.6 59.5 56.7 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 21.2 22.8 28.2 -0.1 49.1 48.8 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.5 30.3 28.1 0.1 51.3 50.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.6 25.4 -0.2 46.2 46.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.8 29.6 0.4 55.4 53.9 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.2 26.1 0.1 51.5 50.6 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 30.3 30.2 28.4 0.3 55.0 53.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.7 26.8 0.2 53.6 52.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.1 30.0 27.6 0.2 53.1 51.6 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.4 29.2 27.3 0.1 51.8 50.8 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.6 29.9 26.7 -0.1 48.7 48.6 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.6 27.7 0.4 56.2 53.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 29.2 30.8 29.0 0.1 52.0 50.5 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.1 30.7 27.3 0.0 49.3 48.9 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.6 29.5 0.5 57.4 55.3 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.6 25.8 0.2 52.9 51.7 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.8 30.1 0.6 59.3 56.4 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.2 23.5 -0.1 48.5 48.6 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.3 30.2 29.4 0.4 56.8 54.8 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.1 29.6 0.7 60.6 57.4 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.9 29.8 0.7 60.6 57.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 27.8 0.5 57.0 54.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.3 28.5 0.3 55.2 53.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.1 26.6 -0.4 43.1 44.8 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.9 29.0 0.4 56.1 54.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 29.1 30.5 28.4 -0.1 48.0 47.8 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.1 24.7 0.1 52.2 51.2 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.0 30.1 0.5 57.4 55.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------