***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 29.6 30.5 0.6 59.1 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.6 30.5 0.7 59.5 56.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.5 30.6 0.8 60.8 58.4 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.0 28.8 0.1 51.2 51.6 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.6 28.6 0.2 52.7 53.0 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.0 26.1 -0.1 49.1 49.6 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.2 30.2 0.5 57.4 55.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.2 17.5 26.6 0.0 50.4 51.2 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.3 29.0 0.4 56.2 55.6 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.9 27.4 0.2 53.4 53.5 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.2 28.2 0.3 53.8 53.8 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.8 28.3 27.9 0.1 51.9 52.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.9 29.4 27.4 0.0 50.3 50.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.2 29.0 28.2 0.4 55.7 54.6 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.1 29.7 0.4 55.4 54.5 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.6 30.1 27.9 0.1 51.0 51.5 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.9 30.0 0.6 59.0 56.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.8 26.3 0.1 51.7 52.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.3 30.6 0.8 61.2 58.2 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.5 23.9 -0.3 45.5 47.5 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 30.0 0.6 57.8 56.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.6 30.1 0.8 60.7 57.6 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 29.8 29.3 30.3 0.9 61.6 58.6 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.7 28.3 0.5 56.6 55.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.6 29.0 0.4 56.1 55.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.7 27.2 -0.4 43.7 45.9 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.2 29.5 0.5 57.1 55.7 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.7 29.1 0.1 51.4 51.7 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.1 25.1 0.0 50.1 50.9 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.4 30.6 0.7 59.5 57.1 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------