***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 29.0 29.3 0.2 53.8 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.3 29.4 0.2 55.1 54.3 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.3 29.5 0.3 56.4 55.6 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.8 27.4 -0.6 36.9 40.1 21.6 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.6 29.2 27.3 -0.5 39.6 42.5 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 27.1 27.2 24.4 -1.1 25.9 30.3 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.9 29.1 0.1 51.1 51.2 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.6 16.9 25.1 -0.8 32.9 36.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.2 28.9 27.8 -0.2 45.4 47.2 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.4 26.1 -0.4 39.9 42.6 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 28.1 28.6 26.8 -0.5 38.4 41.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.3 -0.7 33.6 37.4 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.5 28.7 25.9 -0.9 30.8 35.0 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.6 27.1 -0.1 46.5 48.0 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.5 29.7 28.4 -0.5 39.8 42.3 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.2 29.5 26.5 -0.7 33.5 37.2 29.4 30.3 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.7 29.0 0.3 56.1 55.1 27.7 28.4 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 27.0 27.4 24.9 -0.6 36.9 40.2 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.9 29.5 0.4 58.1 56.6 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 22.7 22.8 22.5 -1.0 26.9 31.4 23.1 23.9 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.1 28.8 -0.1 48.7 49.9 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.4 29.2 0.5 61.0 58.9 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.9 29.0 29.2 0.4 58.2 56.8 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.3 27.1 -0.1 46.6 48.0 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.2 27.8 -0.2 46.0 47.7 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 28.0 27.9 25.6 -1.3 22.1 27.2 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.8 28.3 0.0 49.1 49.9 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 29.2 29.4 27.6 -0.7 33.6 37.1 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 22.4 22.7 23.8 -0.7 33.8 37.6 22.6 23.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.1 29.5 0.2 54.7 54.1 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------