***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 4.6 6.1 51.0 45.2 33.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.8 6.2 6.9 59.1 45.7 32.7 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.9 7.2 62.7 49.7 36.5 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.7 8.5 73.6 55.1 44.5 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.3 7.7 68.2 52.8 41.4 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.3 10.9 96.4 63.5 53.2 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 2.3 4.6 6.5 51.7 42.1 31.6 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.3 8.1 77.4 55.5 46.3 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.1 61.0 49.2 38.2 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.4 8.6 70.1 52.5 43.6 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.5 6.1 64.2 51.2 39.4 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.5 5.7 71.4 54.3 42.3 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.3 8.2 86.3 58.6 47.9 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.7 7.8 8.5 64.8 48.5 37.5 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.4 8.1 72.8 56.0 46.0 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.7 8.1 79.7 56.9 45.7 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.4 4.9 6.3 55.0 43.1 31.1 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.5 10.3 76.4 54.0 45.0 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.5 7.4 6.8 60.9 47.3 32.7 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.4 12.4 100.4 63.6 54.9 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.0 60.9 50.5 38.8 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.4 6.2 55.9 44.2 32.5 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.7 5.4 6.2 56.7 45.8 30.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 6.9 8.6 65.7 49.2 38.8 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.5 8.8 66.3 51.5 41.3 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.5 7.7 100.6 64.3 53.9 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.1 7.8 56.3 47.1 36.6 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.3 8.2 73.1 56.1 45.8 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.1 11.0 82.6 56.5 47.2 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.8 5.9 6.9 58.1 46.7 33.8 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------