***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 15.4 11.0 139.7 75.3 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.8 17.1 12.2 143.8 76.2 50.7 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.1 21.4 10.9 143.0 76.0 48.7 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 23.2 10.6 133.3 73.9 48.2 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.7 16.9 11.3 148.6 77.2 50.0 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.1 22.3 16.7 148.3 77.2 56.1 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.7 18.8 12.4 143.7 76.2 49.9 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 29.2 12.3 145.2 76.5 53.0 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.6 18.1 11.8 150.5 77.6 49.7 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.3 28.7 13.4 150.7 77.6 53.1 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.9 16.9 10.3 148.7 77.2 51.1 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 19.9 9.6 144.8 76.5 49.5 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 13.5 12.7 146.5 76.9 53.6 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.7 32.7 14.2 157.1 79.0 53.6 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 12.6 8.6 114.5 69.9 47.2 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.7 11.6 146.2 76.8 53.3 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 24.9 12.1 146.2 76.7 49.3 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 25.1 16.1 151.2 77.7 55.9 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.1 24.9 11.4 141.9 75.7 49.6 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 17.1 16.4 144.0 76.2 57.3 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 21.6 10.7 154.3 78.4 48.6 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.9 24.9 11.6 140.3 75.4 49.0 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.5 20.5 10.8 147.1 76.8 48.8 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.3 26.1 14.0 152.3 78.0 54.2 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.6 19.8 12.1 130.7 73.2 47.3 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.3 9.5 136.3 74.8 49.4 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 19.3 12.4 130.6 73.2 47.6 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.1 18.9 10.2 130.5 73.4 48.2 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 34.0 16.9 153.7 78.2 56.9 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.1 21.4 11.8 139.7 75.3 49.9 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------