***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 17.1 7.8 103.5 67.9 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.9 17.4 8.9 102.2 67.0 41.0 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 14.3 8.2 105.3 68.3 43.8 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.9 7.3 81.1 62.2 41.5 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.7 7.4 80.3 61.9 40.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.2 82.8 62.2 46.3 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.7 12.8 9.3 106.2 68.0 40.0 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.6 14.8 8.3 84.4 62.0 42.8 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.7 7.6 84.0 62.8 39.9 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.7 9.0 87.3 63.1 43.0 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.2 6.6 81.1 61.6 41.5 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.1 5.9 76.7 60.1 40.5 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.2 6.8 78.8 60.8 42.6 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.7 14.8 10.0 93.9 64.2 44.5 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.1 6.2 83.5 62.8 42.1 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.2 6.6 77.4 60.6 42.1 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 3.4 14.2 8.2 91.8 64.1 38.0 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 17.4 10.8 91.2 63.2 44.5 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 15.1 8.6 100.7 66.4 41.8 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.0 11.2 87.9 61.1 43.7 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.0 11.9 7.1 92.3 65.2 40.2 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 2.8 10.6 8.0 90.3 62.9 38.3 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.7 13.5 8.5 99.8 66.1 42.8 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.7 15.3 9.9 99.7 66.2 45.7 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 12.2 8.5 95.3 65.6 42.0 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.7 5.9 96.0 65.6 43.8 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.3 15.2 9.0 103.1 67.5 41.6 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.9 6.7 77.6 61.1 41.6 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.7 19.7 10.8 89.5 62.4 44.3 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.1 12.4 8.9 105.6 68.0 41.9 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------