***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 8.8 3.8 65.3 53.3 34.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 8.2 4.4 69.1 54.6 36.6 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.1 8.3 3.7 64.6 52.9 35.4 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.5 12.7 3.4 66.0 53.1 34.9 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.5 8.3 3.7 67.6 54.4 34.9 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.8 13.8 5.2 76.2 59.0 39.2 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.2 4.6 70.9 55.6 37.4 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.8 16.0 4.8 82.4 58.8 39.8 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.6 11.4 4.3 71.8 56.5 35.6 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.9 13.0 5.0 75.3 56.9 38.2 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.1 10.5 3.0 65.4 51.7 33.7 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.0 9.5 3.1 72.1 54.4 36.1 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.1 9.1 3.5 68.8 55.4 38.5 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.1 5.7 75.6 57.8 41.3 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.9 10.2 2.9 68.1 53.5 33.7 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.9 9.1 3.2 68.1 54.2 36.7 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.6 4.9 71.9 56.1 37.1 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.8 6.4 77.2 58.3 42.0 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.6 9.3 4.1 67.5 53.5 35.5 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.4 7.4 93.0 63.1 46.7 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.2 10.8 3.8 70.0 55.3 34.6 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.0 9.8 4.9 71.2 56.0 38.3 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.9 3.9 68.3 53.4 35.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.6 13.8 5.3 71.1 56.2 39.9 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.2 4.5 70.6 55.9 37.3 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.5 11.0 2.8 73.2 56.3 39.2 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.2 9.8 4.6 69.2 54.9 37.1 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.2 8.7 3.2 66.4 53.1 34.1 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.0 17.3 6.6 79.4 58.8 43.2 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.6 4.1 66.7 53.4 35.9 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------