***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 13.5 12.7 16.0 -2.4 8.6 10.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 13.2 12.2 15.7 -2.5 7.9 9.4 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 15.3 14.4 16.3 -2.3 8.4 10.5 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 10.4 10.1 14.0 -1.8 14.7 16.6 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 11.8 11.3 14.6 -2.0 12.3 14.6 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 11.2 11.0 12.0 -1.7 14.1 16.1 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 13.6 12.5 15.7 -2.6 6.9 8.4 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 6.3 5.6 11.7 -2.0 9.9 11.7 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 13.3 12.9 14.9 -1.9 12.3 14.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 13.3 12.9 12.9 -1.9 11.7 13.8 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 13.1 12.6 14.2 -2.1 9.6 11.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 11.2 10.5 12.7 -2.2 9.0 10.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 12.4 11.7 13.1 -2.1 9.4 11.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 14.0 13.7 14.4 -1.8 13.0 15.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 14.8 14.6 16.3 -2.0 13.9 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.5 12.8 13.8 -2.1 10.1 12.3 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 14.4 13.6 15.6 -2.4 8.4 9.9 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 11.6 11.2 12.2 -1.8 12.6 14.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 13.6 12.9 15.9 -2.4 8.4 10.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 7.6 7.2 10.2 -1.9 11.2 13.3 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 13.0 12.4 15.7 -2.1 9.9 11.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 13.2 12.5 15.9 -2.3 8.9 10.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 13.0 12.3 15.9 -2.4 9.3 11.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 13.7 13.2 14.4 -1.9 11.3 13.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 12.9 12.2 15.2 -2.3 10.5 12.8 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 12.5 12.1 12.0 -2.0 11.9 14.9 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 12.6 11.8 15.5 -2.3 9.8 12.0 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 12.2 12.1 14.8 -1.8 14.9 16.7 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 10.4 9.9 11.4 -1.8 11.9 14.1 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 13.7 12.7 16.0 -2.5 7.6 9.3 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------